Trump endorses Netanyahu nine days before Israel's election; first poll shows no immediate gain

U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, October 18, nine days before Israel's October 27 general election, giving him his "Complete and Total Endorsement" in a post on Truth Social, TIME and Al Jazeera reported. A Channel 12 poll conducted the next day found no immediate boost for Netanyahu, according to The Times of Israel.

What Trump wrote

Trump called Netanyahu a great wartime prime minister and an even greater partner for peace against Iran, according to both reports. He wrote that if Israel chose anyone other than Netanyahu, the United States would have to do the work itself, and that he was not inclined to. Al Jazeera reported that the post also said Iran had been systematically destroyed and that, unless it changed course, the U.S. would soon finish the job.

Trump told Axios reporter Barak Ravid he had always intended to endorse Netanyahu because the two have a good relationship, TIME reported. In a September interview with TIME, Trump had declined to say directly whether Israelis should re-elect Netanyahu, saying he was no longer involved in politics. Al Jazeera noted that, asked by Newsmax whether he trusted Netanyahu, Trump said he did not trust anybody.

Reactions

Netanyahu thanked Trump in a video, saying he was honoured and humbled, TIME reported. Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief whose Yashar party leads the opposition, said he appreciated Trump but that Israeli voters alone would choose the next prime minister.

Andreas Krieg of King's College London told Al Jazeera the endorsement was a "political gift" to a struggling campaign, but that Trump could not produce the coalition majority Netanyahu lacks. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House said its electoral effect should not be overstated.

What the polls show

The Channel 12 survey of 507 people, with a margin of error of 4.4 points, was conducted on October 19, according to The Times of Israel. It projected:

• Yashar (Eisenkot) 24 seats and Likud (Netanyahu) 21
• B'Yachad (Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid) 14
• Joint List and The Democrats 9 each; Yisrael Beytenu, Shas and Otzma Yehudit 8 each; Religious Zionism and United Torah Judaism 7 each; Ra'am 5

That gives the anti-Netanyahu bloc 55 seats, the pro-Netanyahu bloc 51 and the two Arab-led parties 14, with neither bloc near the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot led Netanyahu 45% to 33% as preferred prime minister. Of opposition supporters, 81% said they intended to vote, against 74% of Netanyahu's supporters. The Times of Israel did not give a pre-endorsement baseline for Likud, and noted the poll was likely conducted partly before Benny Gantz withdrew his Blue and White party from the race that afternoon.

Al Jazeera cited Haaretz's poll tracker as of Sunday showing the Yashar-led opposition alliance at 52 seats and Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition at 51. TIME cited Jewish People Policy Institute surveys finding that most Israelis still see Trump as a friend of Israel, while their trust in him has declined.

Months of friction

TIME listed recent strains: Trump said in March he told Netanyahu to stop attacking Iran's South Pars gas field, declared Israel barred from further bombing Lebanon in April, reportedly berated Netanyahu after strikes on Beirut in June and criticised him in July over intelligence on Iran's nuclear programme.

The endorsement comes as a U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, begun in February, is at a standstill. Al Jazeera reported that Trump has said he would not attack Iran before the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, while U.S. media have reported Pentagon plans to resume strikes before the vote. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused Netanyahu of pushing to restart attacks to avoid jail, Al Jazeera reported.

Gantz, who announced his withdrawal on October 19 because his party was polling below the 3.25% threshold, urged a broad unity government and did not endorse another party, The Times of Israel reported.