Israel's election ends without a majority: Netanyahu's bloc 53, opposition 48, Arab parties 19

Updated October 30. The Central Elections Committee finished counting on October 29: Likud is the largest party on 27 seats, Netanyahu's bloc has 53, the opposition bloc 48 and the Arab parties 19, so neither side reaches 61, Globes and the Jerusalem Post report. That differs from the pre-election polls below, which had Yashar ahead of Likud. Likud has alleged the vote was "stolen" by Arab parties; police say they have no evidence for that, while the Shin Bet is separately investigating suspected foreign funding (Times of India). Official results are due on November 4, after which President Herzog begins consultations, Dawn reports.

Israelis voted on Tuesday, October 27, in a parliamentary election, the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, with polls due to close at 10 pm local time, WION reported. This piece was first written at 15:40 IST on October 27, while polls were open. Parts of the original text are kept below as a record of what was reported before the count and are marked as such.

The result

Globes reports that the Central Elections Committee announced on October 29 that all votes had been counted, including special ballots at army posts and diplomatic missions: 5,589,836 votes cast, 5,564,764 of them valid. The Jerusalem Post says the official count released that Thursday included the remaining double-envelope ballots, the last to be counted. The Times of India, citing the same committee figures, reports the same bloc totals.

Seats by party, as listed by Globes and consistent with the Jerusalem Post's figures:

• Netanyahu's bloc, 53: Likud 27, United Torah Judaism 7, Otzma Yehudit 7, Shas 6, Religious Zionist Party 6. Globes notes Shas has its lowest total since 1992.
• Opposition bloc, 48: Yashar (Eisenkot) 21, B'Yachad (Bennett and Lapid) 12, Democrats (Golan) 8, Yisrael Beytenu (Liberman) 7.
• Arab parties, 19: Joint List 11, Ra'am 8. Globes says that is up from ten in the outgoing Knesset.

The Jerusalem Post reports that two small right-wing lists, People of Israel and the Reservists-Economic party, fell short of the 3.25 per cent threshold. Globes says the results are "not absolutely final", with further checks to come and the official results due on Wednesday, November 4. No bloc reached 61 of the 120 seats; the seat counts above add to 120.

Earlier partial counts differed slightly. Fox News, with 93.8 per cent counted, and India Today, on projections, had Likud at 26; the bloc totals of 53, 48 and 19 were the same.

Turnout. The Central Elections Committee put turnout at 77.7 per cent when polls closed at 10 pm, up 7.1 points on 2022, the Jerusalem Post reports; Fox News says it was the highest at that hour since 1999. By our division, 5,589,836 votes over the 7,331,981 eligible voters WION reported is about 76 per cent; the sources read do not explain the gap with 77.7 per cent. For Arab voters, The Hindu says Channel 12's exit poll estimated nearly 80 per cent and that official figures had not been released. Fox News cites a preliminary Israel Democracy Institute figure of about 80 per cent, against 53.2 per cent in 2022. The Stat-Net projection of 63 per cent, cited before the vote and quoted further down, was well below that. The National also reports roughly 80 per cent.

Exit polls and polls versus the count. On election night, the Jerusalem Post reports, Channels 11 and 13 projected the blocs tied at 51 seats each and Channel 12 gave Netanyahu's bloc 52 against 49, with Likud on 27 and Yashar on 21 to 22. By Wednesday morning the polls had moved to 55 or 56 seats for Netanyahu's bloc. The Jerusalem Post reports that Eisenkot declared victory on election night, saying the preliminary results could give him the first right to try to form a government. Pollster Menachem Lazar of Maariv told 103FM, as the Jerusalem Post reports, that "the pollsters were wrong, all of them" and that they had underestimated Netanyahu's bloc. WION reports that on election night Netanyahu rejected the exit polls and said the right-wing bloc had "a clear, decisive majority among the Zionist public".

The "stolen election" claim and the probes

On October 28, Likud said in a statement that the elections "were stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism", citing alleged bribery, threats, violence, forgery, multiple voting and prohibited mobilisation software, the Jerusalem Post and The Times of India report. The Times of India presents the claim as Netanyahu's; the Guardian says Netanyahu posted the Likud statement online. Likud said it was handing hundreds of testimonies to the police, Shin Bet and the Central Elections Committee. The Jerusalem Post notes the claims had not been independently verified and no evidence of systematic manipulation had been made public. On October 29 the Likud statement called the matter "Ra'amgate", an "earthquake", and said no Zionist party should cooperate with Ra'am or the Joint List, according to JNS.

What officials and others said in response:

• Police. On Thursday morning police said there was "no investigative or intelligence evidence" to support the claims, and that election day had few unusual incidents even compared with past elections, the Jerusalem Post reports.
• Election committee. The committee said it was examining Likud's submission as part of its routine review (Jerusalem Post). The Jerusalem Post's later count report says it stated that the integrity of the vote at polling stations had been maintained. The Guardian quotes its acting director general, Dean Livneh, as saying there appeared to be no basis for the claims.
• President Herzog. He called for the allegations to be fully investigated and for those responsible to be arrested and held accountable, but said "we must not tarnish an entire community" that sought to vote, JNS reports.
• Arab parties and Qatar. Dawn reports that Ra'am's Mansour Abbas welcomed an investigation and said his party had "no connection" with the accusations. The National reports that Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman "categorically" denied interfering, and that Arab parties called the accusations a coordinated campaign to undermine the results.
• Others on the right. The Guardian reports that Itamar Ben-Gvir called for the arrest of Arab party leaders and Bezalel Smotrich for Shin Bet interrogation of them.

The Shin Bet inquiry. Central Elections Committee chair Justice Noam Sohlberg wrote to Shin Bet head David Zini asking him to investigate suspected funding by foreign actors "acting against Israeli interests" to improperly influence the vote, with findings within a week, JNS reports, adding that the letter does not name the actor and that Channel 12 reported the suspicions concern Qatar. Sohlberg wrote that he could not attest to the substance of the suspicions. The Times of India reports that Zini described the information as "extraordinary in its seriousness", that Channel 12 said the Shin Bet had the information for days without telling the committee, and that Channel 13 said investigators were examining money moving through currency exchangers. It also quotes law-enforcement officials saying "this is not a drama" at this stage and says the source of the money, its recipients and its use remain unclear.

Separately, police arrested three people on election day and four more on Thursday over suspected vote-buying involving Ra'am slips; the Times of India reports authorities say that case is not connected to the foreign-funding suspicion. This is the case the piece reported on election day (see below). Hindustan Times notes that these arrests do not establish that wider fraud took place.

Could it change the result? The Times of India says an election appeal generally must be filed within 14 days of publication of results and that an investigation does not automatically invalidate them; it names the Jerusalem District Court, while the Jerusalem Post names the Jerusalem Administrative Affairs Court. The Jerusalem Post reports the prevailing view is that annulling the election nationwide is slim to virtually nonexistent, though specific polling stations could be rerun if proven violations could have affected the outcome. A committee source told the Jerusalem Post, per the Times of India, that the probe is not expected to delay the final results or Herzog's request to a leader to form a government. Yair Lapid said after speaking with Zini and Sohlberg that there is no dispute over the results and no obstacle to swearing in the Knesset, Arutz Sheva reports; that is his account of the briefing.

Coalition talks and what comes next

With 61 needed, the arithmetic is awkward for both camps. The Economic Times reports Netanyahu's coalition is down to 53 from 64, and that Eisenkot's 48 seats plus the Arab parties' 19 would make 67. It and the Times of India say a Likud-Yashar-B'Yachad-Yisrael Beytenu government would hold 66 seats; on the final Globes numbers those four parties add to 67, so the 66 appears to use Likud's earlier 26. Both outlets say such a unity government looks unlikely.

• Netanyahu. He has called for a "national, right-wing, strong government" and ruled out one that relies on Arab parties (WION). Organiser reports that sources close to Netanyahu have floated a unity government with Eisenkot, either with a rotation or with Eisenkot in a senior ministry, and that Eisenkot has given no sign he is willing; those are unattributed briefings. The Economic Times says he could also try to win defectors from the opposition.
• Eisenkot. The Jerusalem Post reports he accused Netanyahu of an "organized campaign to delegitimize" the results and said he would not let the Knesset's swearing-in be delayed. He had earlier ruled out serving under Netanyahu, including in a rotation, the Jerusalem Post says.
• The Arab parties. Joint List chair Yousef Jabareen said his party was ready to pave the way for ousting Netanyahu's government, the Times of India reports; Dawn quotes him as willing to cooperate with the opposition but without joining a government. The Guardian reports the Joint List and the "Change" bloc have ruled out a formal coalition but have discussed voting together in the Knesset to unseat Speaker Amir Ohana and pass some legislation.
• The rest of the opposition. The Jerusalem Post reports that Golan met Eisenkot and Lapid and is pushing for a coalition with Arab parties, while Eisenkot, Bennett and Liberman had drawn a red line against Arab parties in government. Arutz Sheva reports Liberman said he would join only a coalition of Zionist parties without Netanyahu and without the ultra-Orthodox or Arab parties.
• Washington. Asianet Newsable, citing the Jerusalem Post and Walla, reports Trump is said to want a coalition without Ben-Gvir and Smotrich; the report says he has not commented publicly on it.

Process. Herzog said he would receive the official results the following week and then hold consultations, Dawn reports; he then names the candidate with the best chance of forming a government, not necessarily the leader of the largest party, and the law gives him broad discretion. He has said everyone should arrive "with an open mind" and that Israel must do everything to avoid another election (Jerusalem Post). The nominee has 28 days with a possible 14-day extension, per the WION report cited earlier. The Times of India says that if the first candidate fails another may be tried, and that failure to finish in time could trigger another election.

What the last polls showed (as of October 27, before the count)

The final polls were broadcast on Friday, October 23, before a publication ban that began on Saturday, Mathrubhumi reported, citing The Times of Israel. Their seat projections for the main parties:

• Channel 13 (1,875 respondents, margin of error 2.3 points): Yashar 22, Likud 19, B'Yachad 14, Democrats 10, Joint List 9.
• Channel 12 (1,018 respondents, margin 4.4 points): Yashar 23, Likud 21, B'Yachad 15, Democrats 10, Joint List 9.
• Kan (1,106 respondents, margin 3 points): Yashar 22, Likud 20, B'Yachad 14.

A separate Zman Yisrael poll gave 51 seats to each of the two Jewish-led blocs, 14 to Arab-led parties and 4 to the Reservists party, Mathrubhumi reported. These were projections, and the count did not match them: Likud finished on 27, well above every figure here, and Yashar on 21. The Reservists did not cross the threshold.

Earlier figures pointed the same way. A Reuters report of October 19, carried by Hindustan Times, put Eisenkot's bloc at 52 seats and Netanyahu's religious-nationalist bloc at 50, with Ra'am at five and the Joint List at eight. The Hindu said several polls had Yashar at 20 seats, ahead of Likud. Dawn, citing AFP, said the last polls showed Netanyahu running neck and neck with Eisenkot and that it was highly unlikely any single party would come close to 61.

Why a majority was hard to reach (positions before the vote)

Dawn reported that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot had publicly said they would partner with the predominantly Arab lists, which represent about 21 per cent of Israel's population. Reuters, in the Hindustan Times report, quoted Eisenkot saying on a podcast, "I will not align myself with any Arab party", and Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas saying his party wanted to replace the right-wing government. Ahmad Tibi, one of the Joint List's leaders, said his alliance could back a government from outside. Orissa Post, citing IANS and The Times of Israel, reported that both sides were projected to fall short of a majority if they kept their pledges to avoid certain factions. That is the position the result now tests.

Arab turnout was one of the variables. The Stat-Net Research Institute projected 63 per cent turnout among Arab voters, against 56 per cent in 2022, according to Reuters in the Hindustan Times report. The reported turnout was much higher (see above). Dawn reported that tens of thousands of Israelis were estimated to have flown in from abroad to vote, and that surveys show young first-time voters overwhelmingly identify as centre-right or right-wing.

The two main contenders

Netanyahu, 77, has been prime minister for more than 19 years, Republica reports citing AFP, and Likud held 32 seats in the outgoing Knesset. Dawn reported that he focused his campaign on his security credentials and his relationship with US President Donald Trump. Mint reported that Trump endorsed him on October 18, calling him a "great warrior prime minister". Among the biggest criticisms of Netanyahu, Dawn reported, is that he has not taken responsibility for the October 7 attack; his government has resisted calls for a state commission of inquiry.

Eisenkot, 66, was the army's chief of staff from 2015 to 2019, joined Netanyahu's war cabinet after October 7 and left it in June 2024, accusing the prime minister of lacking a clear strategy, The Hindu reports. He founded Yashar in 2025. Outlook and The Times of India report that he opposes Palestinian statehood and supports a strong Israeli security role across the territory between the Jordan and the Mediterranean; The Hindu reports that he has vowed to end Hamas's rule in Gaza within 18 months and pledged a commission of inquiry into the October 7 failures. His son and two nephews were killed fighting in Gaza, The Hindu reports. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid ran on a joint list, B'Yachad.

Besides October 7, Hindustan Times listed ultra-Orthodox military exemptions, judicial changes and the cost of living among the issues. Eisenkot has said he would not compromise on conscription, HT reported.

Election day (as of 15:40 IST on October 27)

WION reported 7,331,981 eligible voters. President Isaac Herzog, Itamar Ben-Gvir, Yair Golan, Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman were among those reported to have voted. Republic World, citing The Times of Israel, reported that Eisenkot began the day at Kibbutz Nir Oz, which was hit in the October 7 attack, with former hostage Gadi Mozes before voting elsewhere.

Two allegations had surfaced by late morning; neither was established in the reports read at the time.

• The Jerusalem Post reported that police arrested three residents of Segev Shalom and Ar'ara BaNegev on suspicion of trying to bribe voters to back Ra'am, and that searches turned up envelopes with tens of thousands of shekels in cash (Jerusalem Post). Netanyahu called for a formal investigation. Ra'am said its activists' conduct was proper and that the arrests were an attempt by Ben-Gvir's police to suppress voting in Arab society, the paper reported. Police have since arrested four more men in the case (see above).
• Arutz Sheva reported that Yisrael Beytenu appealed to the Central Elections Committee over ballot slips said to be unavailable since opening at polling station No. 45 in Kiryat Ono. The brief reported no response. The sources read since then do not say how that complaint ended.

Before the vote, Netanyahu said in a video on October 25 that there were "intelligence signs" that Iran and its proxies could attack to disrupt the election and warned of "disproportionate blows", WION reported.

Will policy change?

Several commentary pieces argue that who wins matters less for security policy than for domestic institutions. The Indian Express wrote that if Eisenkot wins, "expecting a moderation of Israel's policy would be premature". India Today noted that he opposes Palestinian statehood, wants Hamas's military capabilities dismantled and considers a nuclear-armed Iran unacceptable. Foreign Affairs argued that a victory for him is unlikely to change Israel's foreign policy or approach to the Palestinians, but that the two differ on settler violence and that he supports an independent judiciary. The same piece says Netanyahu and his supporters have blamed October 7 on the military and security services, while the opposition blames him. These pieces were written before the result.

Where reports differ

• Likud's seat count. Partial counts reported by India Today and Fox News had Likud on 26; Globes and the Jerusalem Post, on the completed count, have 27. All agree on 53, 48 and 19 for the blocs.
• Arab turnout in 2022. Reuters in the Hindustan Times report put it at 56 per cent; Fox News, citing the Israel Democracy Institute, says 53.2 per cent.
• Turnout. The committee's 77.7 per cent (Jerusalem Post, Fox News) does not match the roughly 76 per cent we get from Globes' vote total and WION's electorate figure. Arab turnout is an estimate of about 80 per cent from Channel 12 and the Israel Democracy Institute, not an official figure.
• Unity-government arithmetic. The Times of India and Economic Times say 66 seats; the final Globes figures add to 67.
• Appeal court. The Times of India names the Jerusalem District Court; the Jerusalem Post names the Jerusalem Administrative Affairs Court.
• Who made the "stolen" claim. The Times of India says Netanyahu alleged it; the Jerusalem Post attributes it to a Likud statement; the Guardian says Netanyahu posted the Likud statement.
• Channel 12 numbers before the vote. Mathrubhumi and Outlook (citing CNN) gave Yashar 23 and Likud 21; Hindustan Times, on election day, gave 23 and 22.
• Arab share of the population. Dawn and HT say 21 per cent; Republica says about 20 per cent; The National says about 20 per cent.

What is not yet known

• Whether the Shin Bet finds evidence of foreign funding, and whether any court appeal follows within the 14-day window.
• Official results, due November 4, and who Herzog tasks with forming a government.
• Whether Eisenkot will accept outside support from the Joint List and Ra'am, whether Likud and Yashar will talk, or whether another election follows.
• Official Arab turnout, and why the committee's turnout rate and its vote total appear to differ.
• How the Kiryat Ono complaint was resolved.

Compiled by the Alethman News Desk from published reports; each figure is as given by the outlet cited and has not been independently verified. Polls are projections, not results.