IMF raises India's 2026-27 growth forecast to 7% from 6.4%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its growth forecast for India's current fiscal year, 2026-27 (FY27), to 7%, up 60 basis points from the 6.4% it projected in July, according to its October 2026 World Economic Outlook. The report was released at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok.

The India forecast

The Indian Express reports that the IMF also sees growth of 7% in 2027-28, compared with 6.7% in its July estimate. Mint notes that the revision reverses the July downgrade, when the Fund had cut its FY27 projection by 10 basis points from 6.5% in April.

The IMF attributed its outlook to stronger-than-expected momentum supported by resilient domestic demand and robust services activity, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. The Fund also said India's growth stayed robust despite higher oil prices and that the country remains among the fastest-growing major economies.

The Indian Express reports that the IMF's forecasts assume an average oil price, across Brent, Dubai Fateh and West Texas Intermediate, of $95.74 per barrel in 2026, up 41% from 2025, falling to $87.39 in 2027.

Other forecasts for India

The Hindu BusinessLine and Mint list other recent revisions for FY27:

• The Reserve Bank of India raised its projection this month to 7.1% from 6.7%.
• The World Bank raised its forecast by 50 basis points to 7.1%, and cautioned that growth in the second half of the fiscal year is likely to slow.
• The OECD raised its forecast by 80 basis points to 7.1% last month.
• The Asian Development Bank, S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings have also raised their forecasts to around 7%.

The global picture

The IMF projects world growth of 3.1% in 2026, up from 3% in July, and 3.4% in 2027, unchanged, according to The Indian Express and Mint. ThePrint, citing ANI, reports that the Fund expects global inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026, driven largely by higher energy and food prices, before easing to 4.1% in 2027. The Hindu BusinessLine reports that the IMF projects average global growth of 3.2% a year in 2028-31, against 3.7% in 2000-19.

The Indian Express reports that advanced economies are seen growing 2.1% in 2026, up from 1.7% in July, while emerging markets and developing economies are seen growing 3.7%, down from 3.8%. The IMF said the economic effects of the war in West Asia are still working through the world economy and that the possibility of larger costs has become more palpable as the conflict drags on, according to the same report.

Risks the IMF flags

ThePrint's account of the report says the IMF described risks as skewed to the downside, citing a prolonged stalemate or escalation in the Middle East that could keep energy and food prices high. Mint reports that for India, the Fund's warnings include higher oil prices that could raise inflation and transport costs, strain the current account and complicate monetary policy, and a slowdown among major trading partners including China that could weigh on exports.