Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro trade accusations in first debate before Brazil's October 25 run-off

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro traded accusations of lying and corruption in their first televised debate before Brazil's presidential run-off, held in São Paulo on Sunday, October 18, according to France 24, citing AFP, and Al Jazeera. The two-hour debate was broadcast by Band TV, Latin Times reported. Brazilians vote on October 25.

The race so far

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, led the first round on October 4 with about 47% of the vote to Lula's 45%, Al Jazeera reported. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth term. About 33 million eligible voters, roughly one in five, did not vote in the first round, according to Al Jazeera.

Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for efforts to overturn his 2022 election defeat, France 24 and Al Jazeera reported.

What was said

Lula called his opponent "a habitual liar, a thug" and said he did not want to stand close to a militiaman, an allusion to alleged ties to Rio de Janeiro paramilitary groups, according to France 24 and Al Jazeera. Flávio Bolsonaro replied that it was wise to keep Lula at a distance "because my wallet could be stolen," referring to Lula's past jailing on corruption charges, which were later annulled. Al Jazeera reported that he also called Lula a clown and raised a possible corruption case involving one of the president's sons, while Lula demanded an explanation of a probe involving Jair Bolsonaro, which Flávio did not answer.

On the economy, Flávio accused the government of reckless spending before the vote, France 24 reported. Latin Times said he pledged to cut more than R$200 billion from the federal budget and proposed a spending freeze tied to debt, while Lula pointed to foreign exchange reserves above $300 billion. Lula repeatedly asked whether Flávio would copy the deep spending cuts of Argentina's president, Javier Milei; all three outlets reported that Flávio sidestepped the question.

On health, Al Jazeera reported, Flávio acknowledged that his father's government's pandemic record was not among its best results and apologised. Lula said his opponent had never used the public health system.

The United States and rare earths

Lula questioned Flávio's ties to US President Donald Trump and his plans for Brazil's rare earth minerals, and said the Bolsonaro family was subservient to American interests, according to France 24. Latin Times reported that Flávio met Trump privately in the Oval Office on May 26, in a meeting covering tariffs, organised crime and access to Brazil's strategic minerals, and that Lula challenged him over proposals giving the US preferential access to mineral deposits. Al Jazeera's report did not address the US relationship.

Polls

The reports describe a close race, with figures that differ by pollster:

• France 24 said two polls released in the week before the debate showed Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49%, and that Flávio's lead had narrowed. It did not name the pollsters.
• Latin Times cited a BTG/Nexus poll released on October 13 giving Flávio 52% to 48% of valid votes, within the margin of error, and a Vox Brasil poll giving Lula 51% to 49%. It said no poll had yet measured reaction to the debate.
• Al Jazeera described Flávio as holding a slight advantage.

Latin Times also cited prediction-market odds favouring Flávio; these are bets, not polls.

The investigations around the candidates

Federal police have asked the Supreme Court to investigate Flávio over a money laundering accusation involving a lawyer close to him, and he is already under investigation over links to banker Daniel Vorcaro, Al Jazeera reported. Lula served 580 days in prison in 2018–2019 on a conviction that was later annulled over flaws in the investigation and proceedings.

Rallies and the next debate

Before the debate, Flávio's supporters rallied on São Paulo's Paulista Avenue, with University of São Paulo monitors estimating about 71,000 people, France 24 reported. A pro-Lula rally on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro drew an estimated 56,000. Al Jazeera reported that Lula supporters also rallied in Brasília.

A second and final debate is scheduled for Friday, October 23, on TV Globo, according to Al Jazeera and Latin Times.